Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Luxembourg
  • Serbia
  • Malta
  • Japan

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(542 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,207.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,207.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(103.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-06-07

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,965$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(9.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,284.3}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,284.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,921$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(435 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,896.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,896.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $344$ on 2020-06-07

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,998$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,800.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(228,800.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,899$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(6.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,796.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,796.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,262$ on 2020-06-07

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,942,363$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,908,875.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,908,875.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110,514$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,080.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(108,080.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,325,482$ on 2020-06-07

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $287,621$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285,060.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(285,060.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,625$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,662.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(38,662.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $245,757$ on 2020-06-07

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,730$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,200.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 66.6)}}\) (asimptote \(46,200.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,659$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(551 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,590.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,590.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,071$ on 2020-06-07

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $185,750$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,007.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(177,007.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,685$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,423.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,423.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,841$ on 2020-06-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 99%
Croatia recovered 99%
Serbia recovered 97%
Malta recovered 93%
Japan recovered 90%
Germany recovered 89%
Denmark recovered 84%
Morocco recovered 80%
Chad recovered 76%
Uruguay recovered 71%
Lithuania recovered 70%
Italy recovered 67%
Georgia recovered 67%
Turkey recovered 66%
Jamaica recovered 57%
San Marino recovered 56%
Romania recovered 42%
Bulgaria recovered 33%
Kuwait recovered 28%
Guinea recovered 28%
Maldives recovered 23%
Algeria recovered 14%
Tajikistan recovered 5%
Canada recovered 4%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,039$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,885.7}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,885.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(30.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(108.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30$ on 2020-06-07

Serbia⮸

Population $8,737,371$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,823$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,230.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,230.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $249$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(56.7 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(245.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $226$ on 2020-06-07

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $629$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(145 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{591.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(591.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-07

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-06-07

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,039$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,706.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,706.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $917$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(84.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{961.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(961.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,132$ on 2020-06-07